Hendrick taking different approach to Chase this year

Autoracing Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Team owner Rick Hendrick arguably had his best season in NASCAR's premier series in 2009, with Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon finishing 1-2-3, respectively, in points. That same scenario won't be unfolding for Hendrick this year.

Gordon qualified for the championship Chase last month at Bristol, and Johnson, who is seeking his record-extending fifth consecutive Sprint Cup Series title, locked down his playoff spot last Sunday at Atlanta. But Gordon and Johnson likely will be the only Hendrick drivers in this year's Chase field.

Barring a miracle in Saturday's regular season-ending race at Richmond, Martin will miss the Chase, as he currently trails 12th-place Clint Bowyer by 147 points. Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s 219-point deficit has him missing the playoffs for the second straight year.

With two drivers in and two out, would this be considered a down year for the mighty Hendrick organization? Not necessarily.

"We're not happy with where we are as an organization, but we're working on it," Hendrick said. "Nobody is blaming anybody, and nobody is giving up."

Ten drivers have now qualified for the Chase, which begins September 19 at New Hampshire.

Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer will presumably secure the final two spots in the Chase. Regardless of any other driver's performance, Biffle will clinch with a 42nd-place finish or higher, and Bowyer will qualify with a 28th-place run or better.

Heading into the Chase, not only will a fifth Cup championship for either Gordon or Johnson be a priority for Hendrick, but building momentum for all four teams will be among the top objectives as well.

"My philosophy is when you've got some areas to work on, you work hard and you work together," he said. "I would rather miss the Chase and have momentum in the last 10 [races] than be in the Chase and grind to a nothing toward the end of the year.

"Our plan is to build momentum and get better every week. Hopefully by the end of the year, we'll have all four teams going forward and not backing up."

Hendrick had three of his drivers in the Chase each year from 2006-09. Johnson has made the Chase each season since the playoff format began in 2004.

Johnson is currently seventh in points, but due to his five victories so far this year, he could start the Chase in the first seed. Denny Hamlin also has five wins for the season. Johnson's third-place run at Atlanta marked his first top-10 finish since August 1 at Pocono.

"There's a lot of teams coming together right now, and I think the 12 drivers in the Chase, and the organizations represented in the Chase, are all pretty strong," Johnson said. "I still think we are trying to catch up a little bit. Some guys might be a little further ahead. We all have our complaints here and there. But I think you're going to have a really good Chase."

Gordon presently holds the second spot in points, but Gordon has yet to win this season.

Martin recently has been plagued with distractions, particularly his driving status with Hendrick for next year. The 51-year-old Martin will drive the No.5 Chevrolet for Hendrick in 2011 before Kasey Kahne takes over his seat the following year.

"We'd certainly like to be in," Martin said. "We will make our very best effort, just as we have starting at Daytona in February. For me, and I think for our whole team, Staying focused on upping our game, improving our performance and working toward trying to get back in the form that we were in last year is our number one priority."

Martin notched five wins in his first season with Hendrick in '09, but has yet to drive into victory lane this year.

After finishing the '09 season a disappointing 25th in points, it looked like Earnhardt Jr. was on the rebound earlier this year. Earnhardt Jr. held a top-12 spot in points after Darlington in May, but NASCAR's most popular driver slowly has faded from there.

Hendrick confirmed this past weekend that Lance McGrew will remain as Earnhardt Jr.'s crew chief heading into next year.

"I'm pretty happy with the chemistry there now," Hendrick noted. "We had some good momentum going, and then we kind of fumbled the ball a little bit here right before the Chase."

When Gordon failed to make the Chase field in 2005, Hendrick made a crew chief change on Gordon's team at the start of the 10-race playoffs, with Steve Letarte replacing Robbie Loomis.

Gordon and Letarte will be in the Chase for the fifth straight year.

Hendrick will attempt to set a record for most all-time owner championships in the series with 10, but chasing history won't be the only thing on Hendrick's mind during this year's Chase, as he looks to revamp his once-dominant organization.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.