Angels send Santana to the hill against Mariners

Baseball Betting Lines

08/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hard-throwing right-hander Ervin Santana takes another step toward a career-best win total tonight when the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim visit Seattle for the opening game of a three-game series with the Mariners at Safeco Field.

Santana, who won 16 games in both 2006 and 2008, picked up his 13th win of 2010 on Aug. 19 when he allowed four hits and two runs in seven innings of a 7-2 defeat of the Boston Red Sox.

He's won five of his last seven starts, but dropped a 10-3 verdict against Tampa Bay in his last outing on Aug. 24.

The 27-year-old tossed a seven-inning gem against the Mariners on July 18 while allowing three hits and a run, but got a no-decision in a game the Angels lost, 2-1.

He split a pair of decisions against Seattle earlier in 2010, taking an 8-1 loss on May 9 and earning an 11-2 win on June 5 while combining to allow 17 hits and six runs in 12 2/3 innings.

Santana is 7-4 lifetime against the Mariners and 6-5 in 12 road starts this season.

For the Mariners, righty David Pauley makes his second career start against the Angels.

The 27-year-old, who debuted in the majors with the Boston Red Sox in 2006 and 2008, has split time between the bullpen and starting with the Mariners this season, making four straight starts since his most recent relief role on Aug. 4.

He was a 5-3 loser at Boston on Aug. 25 after allowing six hits and four runs in 5 2/3 innings, ending a two-start win streak in which he beat Cleveland and Baltimore while allowing 12 hits and six runs in 12 innings.

Pauley is winless in six home appearances -- four starts -- this season while giving up 20 hits and seven earned runs in 23 2/3 innings.

On Sunday in Anaheim, Jeremy Guthrie came within two outs of his first career shutout and Matt Wieters knocked in the lone run with a sacrifice fly in the seventh inning, as Baltimore posted a 1-0 victory to complete its first-ever season sweep of the Angels.

Guthrie's counterpart, Jered Weaver (11-10), pitched eight strong innings, striking out 11 and scattering five hits.

In Seattle, Luke French tossed seven strong innings to help the Mariners take a 2-1 win over the Minnesota Twins in the finale of a three-game set.

French (3-4) was charged with just one run on three hits with a walk and four strikeouts for the Mariners, who had dropped six of seven coming into the contest. Franklin Gutierrez went 2-for-3 with an RBI while Adam Moore drove in the winning run.

The Angels have won eight of their past nine games versus the Mariners to take a 10-3 edge in the season series. That includes victories in five of six at Seattle, where Los Angeles swept a three-game set from June 4-6.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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